论文标题
国民帐户作为股票一致的系统，第1部分：真实帐户
National Accounts as a Stock-Flow Consistent System, Part 1: The Real Accounts
论文作者
论文摘要
当时现有的宏观经济学模式无法预测2008年的经济危机。因此，宏观经济需要新的工具。我们介绍了一个基于国民帐户的模型，该模型显示了宏观经济部门如何相互联系的。这些联系解释了商业周期从一个行业到另一个行业以及从金融部门到现实经济的传播。这些langages不能用一般平衡类型的模型来解释。我们的模型描述了经济国家（NA）的真实部分。帐户以以下宏观领域之间的货币流程图形式出现：非金融公司，金融公司，家庭，政府和世界其他地区。该模型包含NA中的所有主要项目，相应的仿真模型为无限的未来创建了59个关键宏观经济量的时间路径。 NA的芬兰数据从1975 - 2012年开始用于校准模型的参数，该模型以足够的精度遵循历史数据。我们的研究是系统分析宏模型的基础，可以解释经济生产系统中的积极和负饲料。这些饲料背景是从经济单位之间以及真实和金融市场之间的互动中诞生的。 Jel E01，E10。 关键词：股票流量模型，国民帐户，仿真模型。
The 2008 economic crisis was not forecastable by at that time existing models of macroeconomics. Thus macroeconomics needs new tools. We introduce a model based on National Accounts that shows how macroeconomic sectors are interconnected. These connections explain the spread of business cycles from one industry to another and from financial sector to the real economy. These lingages cannot be explained by General Equilibrium type of models. Our model describes the real part of National Accounts (NA) of an economy. The accounts are presented in the form of a money flow diagram between the following macro-sectors: Non-financial firms, financial firms, households, government, and rest of the world. The model contains all main items in NA and the corresponding simulation model creates time paths for 59 key macroeconomic quantities for an unlimited future. Finnish data of NA from time period 1975-2012 is used in calibrating the parameters of the model, and the model follows the historical data with sufficient accuracy. Our study serves as a basis for systems analytic macro-models that can explain the positive and negative feed-backs in the production system of an economy. These feed-backs are born from interactions between economic units and between real and financial markets. JEL E01, E10. Key words: Stock-Flow Models, National Accounts, Simulation model.
