论文标题
贝叶斯条件转化模型
Bayesian Conditional Transformation Models
论文作者
论文摘要
统计回归方法的最新发展从纯平均回归转向分布回归模型。其一项重要的链接是条件转化模型(CTM)。 CTMS通过将转换函数应用于对响应的一组协变量,直接推断整个条件分布,以对简单的对数符号参考分布进行条件。因此,CTM不仅允许方差,峰度或偏度,还允许完全条件分布取决于解释变量。我们提出了一个有条件转化模型(BCTM)的贝叶斯概念,该概念重点是精确观察到的持续响应,但也将扩展纳入了随机审查和离散响应。我们不依赖于基于可能性的CTM的Bernstein多项式,而是实现了基于样条的参数化,以补充具有平滑性先验的单调效应。此外,我们能够通过易于获得的可靠间隔和其他数量从贝叶斯范式中受益,而无需依赖大型样品近似值。一项仿真研究表明,我们的方法与基于可能性的对应物的竞争力,以及位置,规模和形状以及贝叶斯分数回归的贝叶斯添加剂模型。两个应用程序说明了涉及现实世界数据的问题中BCTM的多功能性,包括与各种类型竞争对手的比较。
Recent developments in statistical regression methodology shift away from pure mean regression towards distributional regression models. One important strand thereof is that of conditional transformation models (CTMs). CTMs infer the entire conditional distribution directly by applying a transformation function to the response conditionally on a set of covariates towards a simple log-concave reference distribution. Thereby, CTMs allow not only variance, kurtosis or skewness but the complete conditional distribution to depend on the explanatory variables. We propose a Bayesian notion of conditional transformation models (BCTMs) focusing on exactly observed continuous responses, but also incorporating extensions to randomly censored and discrete responses. Rather than relying on Bernstein polynomials that have been considered in likelihood-based CTMs, we implement a spline-based parametrization for monotonic effects that are supplemented with smoothness priors. Furthermore, we are able to benefit from the Bayesian paradigm via easily obtainable credible intervals and other quantities without relying on large sample approximations. A simulation study demonstrates the competitiveness of our approach against its likelihood-based counterpart but also Bayesian additive models of location, scale and shape and Bayesian quantile regression. Two applications illustrate the versatility of BCTMs in problems involving real world data, again including the comparison with various types of competitors.