论文标题
厄尔尼诺南部振荡的非高斯随机模型
A Non-Gaussian Stochastic Model for the El Niño Southern Oscillation
论文作者
论文摘要
开发了一种非自主的随机动力学模型方法，以描述厄尔尼诺 - 南方振荡（ENSO）的季节性变异性。我们使用仅涉及海面温度数据的部分观测来确定模型系数。我们的方法再现了观察到的季节性锁定及其不确定性，以及高度非高斯ENSO的统计数据。最后，我们恢复了隐藏过程的间歇时间序列，包括热跃层深度和风爆。
A non-autonomous stochastic dynamical model approach is developed to describe the seasonal to interannual variability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We determine the model coefficients by systematic statistical estimations using partial observations involving only sea surface temperature data. Our approach reproduces the observed seasonal phase locking and its uncertainty, as well as the highly non-Gaussian statistics of ENSO. Finally, we recover the intermittent time series of the hidden processes, including the thermocline depth and the wind bursts.
