论文标题
业务周期是集体风险波动
Business Cycles as Collective Risk Fluctuations
论文作者
论文摘要
我们建议将R的连续数值风险等级[0,1]用于单个风险或RN中的单位立方体作为经济领域。我们将经济代理人的风险评级视为其在经济领域中的坐标。代理商，经济或其他因素的经济活动改变了代理人的风险评级，并导致经济领域中的代理商运动。少量经济领域中各个代理的变量和交易的聚合建立了连续的经济媒体近似，该媒体近似描述了集体变量，交易及其在经济领域中的流量，作为风险坐标的功能。任何经济变量a（t，x）将平均风险XA（t）定义为经济变量A（t，x）加权风险。界面经济领域中经济变量的集体流量从安全区域到危险区域波动。流量的这些波动会导致宏观经济变量A（t）及其平均风险XA（T）的时间振荡，并且是任何业务和信用周期的起源。我们得出了描述集体变量，交易及其在经济领域流动的演变的方程式。作为插图，我们提出了简单的供需周期的自洽方程，这些方程描述了供求，需求及其平均风险的波动。
We suggest use continuous numerical risk grades [0,1] of R for a single risk or the unit cube in Rn for n risks as the economic domain. We consider risk ratings of economic agents as their coordinates in the economic domain. Economic activity of agents, economic or other factors change agents risk ratings and that cause motion of agents in the economic domain. Aggregations of variables and transactions of individual agents in small volume of economic domain establish the continuous economic media approximation that describes collective variables, transactions and their flows in the economic domain as functions of risk coordinates. Any economic variable A(t,x) defines mean risk XA(t) as risk weighted by economic variable A(t,x). Collective flows of economic variables in bounded economic domain fluctuate from secure to risky area and back. These fluctuations of flows cause time oscillations of macroeconomic variables A(t) and their mean risks XA(t) in economic domain and are the origin of any business and credit cycles. We derive equations that describe evolution of collective variables, transactions and their flows in the economic domain. As illustration we present simple self-consistent equations of supply-demand cycles that describe fluctuations of supply, demand and their mean risks.
