论文标题
飓风 - 黑色 - 热浪的复合危害风险和韧性在不断变化的气候下
Hurricane-blackout-heatwave Compound Hazard Risk and Resilience in a Changing Climate
论文作者
论文摘要
飓风导致停电和停电，影响数百万客户并引起严重的社会和经济影响。飓风引起的停电的影响可能会由于极端热量增加，并可能在气候变化下增加飓风增加而恶化。我们将飓风和热浪预测与停电和恢复过程分析一起使用，以调查新兴的飓风 - 黑人狂热波化合物危害在不断变化的气候下如何因德克萨斯州的哈里斯县（包括休斯顿市的主要部分）而有所不同。我们发现，在高排放场景RCP8.5下，预期的百分比在20年内，经历至少5天的飓风诱导的停电将从20世纪末的14％显着增加，即在哈里斯县21世纪末的44％。预期的没有电力（提供空调）至少超过5天的热浪的客户将从0.8％增加到15.5％。如果在严格的缓解情况RCP2.6下，气候得到很好的控制，则可以在很大程度上避免这些风险增加。我们还透露，分销网络关键部门的适度增强可以显着提高整个电网的弹性，并减轻未来复合危害的风险。这些发现共同表明，除气候缓解气候外，还需要迫切需要进行气候适应动作以改善沿海电力系统的弹性。
Hurricanes have caused power outages and blackouts, affecting millions of customers and inducing severe social and economic impacts. The impacts of hurricane-caused blackouts may worsen due to increased heat extremes and possibly increased hurricanes under climate change. We apply hurricane and heatwave projections with power outage and recovery process analysis to investigate how the emerging hurricane-blackout-heatwave compound hazard may vary in a changing climate, for Harris County in Texas (including major part of Houston City) as an example. We find that, under the high-emissions scenario RCP8.5, the expected percent of customers experiencing at least one longer-than-5-day hurricane-induced power outage in a 20-year period would increase significantly from 14% at the end of the 20th century to 44% at the end of the 21st century in Harris County. The expected percent of customers who may experience at least one longer-than-5-day heatwave without power (to provide air conditioning) would increase alarmingly, from 0.8% to 15.5%. These increases of risk may be largely avoided if the climate is well controlled under the stringent mitigation scenario RCP2.6. We also reveal that a moderate enhancement of critical sectors of the distribution network can significantly improve the resilience of the entire power grid and mitigate the risk of the future compound hazard. Together these findings suggest that, in addition to climate mitigation, climate adaptation actions are urgently needed to improve the resilience of coastal power systems.
