论文标题
早期系统在2030年后议程中催化长期可持续性所必需的变化
Early systems change necessary for catalyzing long-term sustainability in a post-2030 agenda
论文作者
论文摘要
迈向可持续发展目标（可持续发展目标）的进展未达到预期，不太可能完全实现2030个目标。尽管几乎没有成功的机会，但过去的评估主要集中在短期和中期评估上，限制了探索与时间滞后和延迟的全身相互作用的长期影响的能力。在这里，我们比以前的评估对全球系统建模进行了长期观点，以探索可持续性进步的驱动力，以及在不同的开发途径和朝着定量目标下，到2030年，2050年和2100之间如何出现。我们发现，针对系统的早期规划转变为从商业往往转变为更可持续的途径，对于到2030年，2050年和2100年的进步加速到越来越有雄心勃勃的目标是重要的。这些发现表明，要确保在当前2030年的2030 Adgenda以外的可持续性中采用长期时间段内和途径的重要性。
Progress to-date towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) has fallen short of expectations and is unlikely to fully meet 2030 targets. Despite the little chance of imminent success, past assessments have mostly focused on short- and medium-term evaluations, limiting the ability to explore the longer-term effects of systemic interactions with time lags and delay. Here we undertake global systems modelling with a longer-term view than previous assessments to explore the drivers of sustainability progress and how they could emerge by 2030, 2050, and 2100 under different development pathways and towards quantitative targets. We find that early planning for systems change to shift from business-as-usual to more sustainable pathways is important for accelerating progress towards increasingly ambitious targets by 2030, 2050, and 2100. These findings indicate the importance of adopting longer-term timeframes and pathways to ensure that the necessary pre-conditions are in place for sustainability beyond the current 2030 Agenda.
