论文标题
COVID-19的传输动力学的亨逊图：无症状发射机和延迟症状的作用
A Henon map for the transmission dynamics of COVID-19: The role of asymptomatic transmitters and delayed symptoms
论文作者
论文摘要
我们考虑Covid-19的传输动力学，其特征是两个不同的特征。一个是无症状载体的存在，这是问题中隐藏的变量。另一个是潜伏期的问题，这意味着在有症状的载体中，可能会有几天后的症状出现。我们的建模仅限于我们所谓的疾病-1期。在此阶段，疾病陷入困境，受感染者的数量开始迅速增长（每天的新病例的数量不断增长），然后减慢（每天新病例的数量开始减少），新病例的数量减少到其峰值的十分之一甚至更小）。我们将第1阶段定义为每日案例再次开始上升时结束。我们写下了类似亨逊的地图，以考虑到第一阶段的各种效果。
We consider the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 which is characterized by two distinct features. One is the existence of asymptomatic carriers which is a hidden variable in the problem. The other is the issue of latency which means that among the symptomatic carriers there could be a fraction whose symptoms develop after a couple of days. Our modelling is restricted to what we call the Phase -1 of the disease. During this phase the disease sets in and the number of infected people starts growing fast ( the number of new cases per day keeps growing on an average ) and then it slows down ( the number of new cases per day starts decreasing ) with the number of new cases decreasing to about one tenth of its peak value or even smaller). We define Phase-1 to be over when the daily cases start rising once again. We write down a Henon-like map to take various effects into account for this first phase.
