论文标题

贝叶斯分层时空模型通过结合不同的鱼类调查的观察结果来改善多种产品评估

Bayesian hierarchical space-time models to improve multispecies assessment by combining observations from disparate fish surveys

论文作者

Nnanatu, Chibuzor C., Thompson, Murray S. A., Spence, Michael A., Couce, Elena, van der Kooij, Jeroen, Lynam, Christopher P.

论文摘要

受人类活动影响的许多野生物种需要多次调查,这些调查具有不同的设计,以捕获对范围广泛的栖息地条件的行为反应,并绘制和量化它们。尽管来自使用不同齿轮的相交但不同的鱼调查的数据广泛可用,但设计和方法论的差异通常会限制其整合。可以利用来自不同来源的观察结果的新型统计方法可以同时增强我们对多种物种分布的理解,从而提供了保存其人口和生物多样性所需的重要证据。使用新型的贝叶斯分层二项式二项式障碍型建模方法,在INLA-SPDE框架内,我们合并并分析了北海的鲱鱼,Sprat和东北大西洋鲭鱼的声学和底部拖网调查数据。这些模型是使用INLA-SPDE技术实施的。通过考虑跨调查的齿轮特异性效率,除了增加空间覆盖范围之外,我们在估计中获得了更大的统计功率,并极大地降低了不确定性。我们的统计方法提供了一种方法上的发展,以改善多物种评估和基于海洋生态系统的管理的证据基础。在更广泛的规模上,可以很容易地应用在不同的生物学调查和抽样方法相交的地方,例如使用物种分布的全球数据集提供有关生物多样性模式的信息。

Many wild species affected by human activities require multiple surveys with differing designs to capture behavioural response to wide ranging habitat conditions and map and quantify them. While data from for example intersecting but disparate fish surveys using different gear, are widely available, differences in design and methodology often limit their integration. Novel statistical approaches which can draw on observations from diverse sources could enhance our understanding of multiple species distributions simultaneously and thus provide vital evidence needed to conserve their populations and biodiversity at large. Using a novel Bayesian hierarchical binomial-lognormal hurdle modelling approach within the INLA-SPDE framework, we combined and analysed acoustic and bottom trawl survey data for herring, sprat and northeast Atlantic mackerel in the North Sea. These models were implemented using INLA-SPDE techniques. By accounting for gear-specific efficiencies across surveys in addition to increased spatial coverage, we gained larger statistical power with greatly minimised uncertainties in estimation. Our statistical approach provides a methodological development to improve the evidence base for multispecies assessment and marine ecosystem-based management. And on a broader scale, it could be readily applied where disparate biological surveys and sampling methods intersect, e.g. to provide information on biodiversity patterns using global datasets of species distributions.

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