论文标题

衡量和评估经济不确定性

Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty

论文作者

Claveria, Oscar

论文摘要

本文评估了代理人所渗透的经济活动对不确定性冲击的动态反应。该研究重点是制造商和消费者对经济不确定性的感知之间的比较。由于不直接可观察到不确定性,我们近似使用的是,我们使用量化的几何学差异允许我们对Claveria et anditions formitions of Claveria等人(2019年)。首先,我们计算了与不确定性的三个维度相对应(经济,通货膨胀和就业)的三个方面的三个独立的差异指数,我们平均它们以获得企业和消费者的汇总分歧措施,并为消费者提供了分歧。制造商和消费者之间对不确定性感知感知不确定性感知的经济活动的影响。一方面,消费者差异的震惊往往比制造商的差异更大和持续时间更大和持续时间。在另一方面,在另一方面,两种集体之间的分歧对消费者的震惊对经济活动的影响相反:对制造商的震惊:对制造商的震惊对差异的差异是相反的,而对差异的差异是差异。差异。在使用基于调查的期望的横断面分散时,这一发现与研究人员特别相关,因为对冲击的经济增长对分歧的影响取决于代理的类型。

This paper evaluates the dynamic response of economic activity to shocks in uncertainty as percieved by agents.The study focuses on the comparison between the perception of economic uncertainty by manufacturers and consumers.Since uncertainty is not directly observable, we approximate it using the geometric discrepancy indicator of Claveria et al.(2019).This approach allows us quantifying the proportion of disagreement in business and consumer expectations of eleven European countries and the Euro Area.First, we compute three independent indices of discrepancy corresponding to three dimensions of uncertainty (economic, inflation and employment) and we average them to obtain aggregate disagreement measures for businesses and for consumers.Next, we use a bivariate Bayesian vector autoregressive framework to estimate the impulse response functions to innovations in disagreement in every country.We find that the effect on economic activity of shocks to the perception of uncertainty differ markedly between manufacturers and consumers.On the one hand, shocks to consumer discrepancy tend to be of greater magnitude and duration than those to manufacturer discrepancy.On the other hand, innovations in disagreement between the two collectives have an opposite effect on economic activity:shocks to manufacturer discrepancy lead to a decrease in economic activity, as opposed to shocks to consumer discrepancy.This finding is of particular relevance to researchers when using cross-sectional dispersion of survey-based expectations, since the effect on economic growth of shocks to disagreement depend on the type of agent.

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