论文标题
诊断测试对无症状组隔室模型中隔离率的影响
Effect of diagnostic testing on the isolation rate in a compartmental model with asymptomatic groups
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了两个流行病学模型，它们通过考虑不加选择的隔离的影响，基于测试的感染个体的隔离以及无症状的个体的存在来扩展经典的SEIR模型。考虑到限制同时有源病例数量的最大数量的约束，我们证明了执行该约束的隔离率随着测试速率的增加而降低。这些模型预测，大规模测试允许使用隔离率低得多的隔离率来控制感染扩散。我们还表明，与症状组的相应参数相比，感染动力学对无症状组的参数更敏感。
We present two epidemiological models, which extend the classical SEIR model by accounting for the effect of indiscriminate quarantining, isolation of infected individuals based on testing and the presence of asymptomatic individuals. Given a constraint that limits the maximal number of simultaneous active cases, we demonstrate that the isolation rate, which enforces this constraint, decreases with the increasing testing rate. The models predict that massive testing allows to control the infection spread using a much lower isolation rate than in the case of indiscriminate quarantining. We also show that dynamics of infection are more sensitive to the parameters of the asymptomatic groups than the corresponding parameters of the symptomatic groups.
