论文标题
时间序列预测合奏的两步元学习
Two-Step Meta-Learning for Time-Series Forecasting Ensemble
论文作者
论文摘要
自动预测时间序列的增长和商业智能适用性收集的历史数据数量很高。尽管没有单个时间序列建模方法与所有类型的动力学都通用,但使用几种方法的集合通常将其视为妥协。我们建议使用元学习来适应这些方面,而不是固定整体多样性和规模。 Meta-Learning在这里考虑了两个单独的随机森林回归模型,这些模型建立在390个时间序列的功能上,以对22个单变量预测方法进行排名,并推荐集合尺寸。因此,预测合奏是由排名最佳的方法形成的,并且使用简单或加权平均值(重量对应于相互等级)来汇总预测。对M4竞争的12561个微观经济时间序列进行了测试(对于各种预测范围,在各种预测范围内扩展到38633),在该竞争中,元学习的表现优于所有数据类型和视野的相对预测误差。通过使用THETA方法获得的对称平均绝对百分比误差为9.21%,而11.05%的对称平均绝对百分比误差,可以实现最佳总体结果。
Amounts of historical data collected increase and business intelligence applicability with automatic forecasting of time series are in high demand. While no single time series modeling method is universal to all types of dynamics, forecasting using an ensemble of several methods is often seen as a compromise. Instead of fixing ensemble diversity and size, we propose to predict these aspects adaptively using meta-learning. Meta-learning here considers two separate random forest regression models, built on 390 time-series features, to rank 22 univariate forecasting methods and recommend ensemble size. The forecasting ensemble is consequently formed from methods ranked as the best, and forecasts are pooled using either simple or weighted average (with a weight corresponding to reciprocal rank). The proposed approach was tested on 12561 micro-economic time-series (expanded to 38633 for various forecasting horizons) of M4 competition where meta-learning outperformed Theta and Comb benchmarks by relative forecasting errors for all data types and horizons. Best overall results were achieved by weighted pooling with a symmetric mean absolute percentage error of 9.21% versus 11.05% obtained using the Theta method.