论文标题

使用深厚的强化学习来探索市场力量,以制定智能招标策略

Exploring market power using deep reinforcement learning for intelligent bidding strategies

论文作者

Kell, Alexander J. M., Forshaw, Matthew, McGough, A. Stephen

论文摘要

分散的电力市场通常由控制大多数产能的一小部分发电机公司主导。在本文中,我们探讨了一组或组的发电机公司可以对平均电力价格产生的总控制电力能力的影响。我们通过使用Elecsim的模拟来证明这一点。我们开发了一家代表一家一家公司的战略代理,该公司使用深层确定性的政策梯度增强学习算法来竞标统一的价格电力市场。统一的定价市场是所有玩家获得最高接收价格的市场。 Elecsim已被参数为2018年英国。这项工作可以帮助有关如何最佳调节市场以确保电力价格保持竞争力的政策。 我们发现容量在一年内会影响平均电价。如果有任何单个生成器公司或一个合作的发电机公司集团,可以控制超过$ {\ sim} $ 11 $ \%的发电能力,并且从战略上竞标,价格开始上涨$ {\ sim} $ 25 $ \%$。 $ {\ sim} $ 25 \%和$ {\ sim} $ 11 \%的价值在市场结构和国家 /地区之间可能有所不同。例如,不同的负载轮廓可能有利于特定类型的发电机或发电能力的不同分布。一旦发电机公司控制的容量(从战略上竞标)高于$ {\ sim} $ 35 \%,价格呈指数增长。我们观察到,平均市场价格大约两倍的市值的使用具有显着降低这种影响并维持竞争性市场的影响。公平和竞争性的电力市场为消费者提供了价值,并通过行业和消费者的电力来实现更具竞争力的经济。

Decentralized electricity markets are often dominated by a small set of generator companies who control the majority of the capacity. In this paper, we explore the effect of the total controlled electricity capacity by a single, or group, of generator companies can have on the average electricity price. We demonstrate this through the use of ElecSim, a simulation of a country-wide energy market. We develop a strategic agent, representing a generation company, which uses a deep deterministic policy gradient reinforcement learning algorithm to bid in a uniform pricing electricity market. A uniform pricing market is one where all players are paid the highest accepted price. ElecSim is parameterized to the United Kingdom for the year 2018. This work can help inform policy on how to best regulate a market to ensure that the price of electricity remains competitive. We find that capacity has an impact on the average electricity price in a single year. If any single generator company, or a collaborating group of generator companies, control more than ${\sim}$11$\%$ of generation capacity and bid strategically, prices begin to increase by ${\sim}$25$\%$. The value of ${\sim}$25\% and ${\sim}$11\% may vary between market structures and countries. For instance, different load profiles may favour a particular type of generator or a different distribution of generation capacity. Once the capacity controlled by a generator company, which bids strategically, is higher than ${\sim}$35\%, prices increase exponentially. We observe that the use of a market cap of approximately double the average market price has the effect of significantly decreasing this effect and maintaining a competitive market. A fair and competitive electricity market provides value to consumers and enables a more competitive economy through the utilisation of electricity by both industry and consumers.

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