论文标题
这些空前的时代：世界各地共同死亡的动态模式
These Unprecedented Times: The Dynamic Pattern Of COVID-19 Deaths Around The World
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们处理COVID-19数据，以研究全球情况下流行病的趋势。选择死亡率作为适当的度量标准，该指标衡量累积性确认案件和死亡病例之间的相对关系，我们利用修改后的内核估计器来进行随机密度函数（Petersen和Muller，2016年）获得死亡率的密度，以获取死亡率的密度，并应用FRECHET变化点检测（Dubey和Muller，2020），如果有任何大量变化，则需要进行任何动态变化。分析表明，在报告的死亡案件超过30例后，在第一天后的104天，全球共证死亡率的模式似乎有明显的变化。然后，我们讨论了从主观和客观方面突然改变死亡率趋势的原因。
In this article, we deal with COVID-19 data to study the trend of the epidemic at the global situation. Choosing the mortality rate as an appropriate metric which measures the relative relation between the cumulative confirmed cases and death cases, we utilize the modified kernel estimator for random density function (Petersen and Muller, 2016) to obtain the density of the mortality rate, and apply Frechet change point detection (Dubey and Muller, 2020) to check if there is any significant change on the dynamic pattern of COVID-19 deaths. The analysis shows that the pattern of global COVID-19 mortality rate seems to have an obvious change at 104 days after first day when the reported death cases exceed 30. Then we discuss the reasons of abrupt change of mortality rate trend from aspects both subjective and objective.
