论文标题
通过非高斯偏见校正在不断变化的气候下评估风能操作的可靠性
Assessing the Reliability of Wind Power Operations under a Changing Climate with a Non-Gaussian Bias Correction
论文作者
论文摘要
面对社会和经济压力的日益增加，许多国家已经建立了开发可再生能源投资组合的战略，其在市场上的渗透可以减轻对化石燃料的依赖。在风的情况下，鉴于当前的风力涡轮机的寿命长达三十年，因此存在一个与弹性有关的基本问题，因此未来风电场的盈利能力是不断变化的。在这项工作中，我们开发了一个新的非高斯方法数据来模拟并估计未来的风，这是基于跨陶斯的变换和kullback-leibler差异的群集最小化的基础。将为沙特阿拉伯确定未来的风丰度。此外，我们使用其他高分辨率模拟，一种改进的垂直防外推方法以及来自流行的风力涡轮机的收集的功率曲线来估计未来几十年的利润变化。我们发现，对于该国风能农业的最佳地点，风能市场的每日利润总体上的利润总体上涨了272,000美元。
Facing increasing societal and economic pressure, many countries have established strategies to develop renewable energy portfolios, whose penetration in the market can alleviate the dependence on fossil fuels. In the case of wind, there is a fundamental question related to the resilience, and hence profitability of future wind farms to a changing climate, given that current wind turbines have lifespans of up to thirty years. In this work, we develop a new non-Gaussian method data to simulations and to estimate future wind, predicated on a trans-Gaussian transformation and a cluster-wise minimization of the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Future winds abundance will be determined for Saudi Arabia, a country with a recently established plan to develop a portfolio of up to 16 GW of wind energy. Further, we estimate the change in profits over future decades using additional high-resolution simulations, an improved method for vertical wind extrapolation, and power curves from a collection of popular wind turbines. We find an overall increase in the daily profit of $272,000 for the wind energy market for the optimal locations for wind farming in the country.
