论文标题
控制流行病并应用于COVID-19
On Control of Epidemics with Application to COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
在写作时,由于严重的急性呼吸道综合征2(SARS-COV-2),正在进行的Covid-19-19大流行已经导致全世界感染了超过300万例,全世界有超过100万例死亡。 鉴于大流行仍在威胁健康和安全的事实,因此紧迫地了解COVID-19传染过程并知道如何控制它。考虑到这一动机,在本文中,我们考虑了一个随机离散的易感性感染的死亡〜(SIRD)基于两个不确定性的流行病学模型:未经发现的感染案例的不确定率,未发现或无症状,以及不确定的控制率。我们的目的是研究控制理论框架中流行病控制政策对不确定模型的影响。我们首先在基于修改的SIRD模型(例如受感染的病例,易感病例,恢复病例和已故病例)中提供状态的封闭式解决方案。然后,还提供了相应的预期状态以及这些状态的技术下限和上限。随后,我们考虑要解决的两个流行病控制问题:一个几乎是肯定的流行病控制问题,另一个是平均流行病控制问题。在定义了两个问题之后,我们的主要结果是一类线性控制策略的足够条件,这些条件确保流行病是“控制得很好”的。即,受感染的病例和已故病例都是统一的上限,被感染病例的数量渐近地收敛至零。我们使用历史COVID-19的传染数据数据,我们的数值研究表明,与持续的大流行状况相比,我们有吸引力的简单模型和控制框架可以提供合理的流行病控制绩效。
At the time of writing, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), had already resulted in more than thirty-two million cases infected and more than one million deaths worldwide. Given the fact that the pandemic is still threatening health and safety, it is in the urgency to understand the COVID-19 contagion process and know how it might be controlled. With this motivation in mind, in this paper, we consider a version of a stochastic discrete-time Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Death~(SIRD)-based epidemiological model with two uncertainties: The uncertain rate of infected cases which are undetected or asymptomatic, and the uncertain effectiveness rate of control. Our aim is to study the effect of an epidemic control policy on the uncertain model in a control-theoretic framework. We begin by providing the closed-form solutions of states in the modified SIRD-based model such as infected cases, susceptible cases, recovered cases, and deceased cases. Then, the corresponding expected states and the technical lower and upper bounds for those states are provided as well. Subsequently, we consider two epidemic control problems to be addressed: One is almost sure epidemic control problem and the other average epidemic control problem. Having defined the two problems, our main results are a set of sufficient conditions on a class of linear control policy which assures that the epidemic is "well-controlled"; i.e., both of the infected cases and deceased cases are upper bounded uniformly and the number of infected cases converges to zero asymptotically. Our numerical studies, using the historical COVID-19 contagion data in the United States, suggest that our appealingly simple model and control framework can provide a reasonable epidemic control performance compared to the ongoing pandemic situation.