论文标题
预防199号死亡人数：国家与联邦政策
Preventing COVID-19 Fatalities: State versus Federal Policies
论文作者
论文摘要
当联邦政府不执行遏制政策而允许各州执行自己的政策时，COVID-19的死亡人数是否大？我们通过为由多个国家组成的国家的SIRD流行病学模型开发随机扩展来回答这个问题。我们的模型允许州际移动性。我们考虑三个政策：面具授权，全职订单和州际旅行禁令。我们将模型适合美国每日美国州级COVID-19死亡人数，并利用我们的估计来产生各种政策反事实。尽管某些州施加的限制抑制了大量病毒死亡，但我们发现，到2020年11月下旬，可能会阻止超过三分之二的美国联盟19人死亡，以至于联邦政府早在最早的国家中就执行了联邦授权。我们的结果量化了联邦政府对遏制大流行的早期行动的好处。
Are COVID-19 fatalities large when a federal government does not enforce containment policies and instead allow states to implement their own policies? We answer this question by developing a stochastic extension of a SIRD epidemiological model for a country composed of multiple states. Our model allows for interstate mobility. We consider three policies: mask mandates, stay-at-home orders, and interstate travel bans. We fit our model to daily U.S. state-level COVID-19 death counts and exploit our estimates to produce various policy counterfactuals. While the restrictions imposed by some states inhibited a significant number of virus deaths, we find that more than two-thirds of U.S. COVID-19 deaths could have been prevented by late November 2020 had the federal government enforced federal mandates as early as some of the earliest states did. Our results quantify the benefits of early actions by a federal government for the containment of a pandemic.
