论文标题

推进运动科学的统计决策

Advancing statistical decision-making in sports science

论文作者

Aisbett, Janet, Drinkwater, Eric J., Quarrie, Kenneth L., Woodcock, Stephen

论文摘要

基于幅度的决策(MBD)程序是在运动科学中制定的,是无效假设显着性检验的替代方法。它的目的是强调效果大小并阻止二分法决策。在某些体育科学期刊上说,它缺乏理论基础,并导致I型错误率很高。为了解决这些主张,我们首先将轮廓增强的漏斗图概括为允许有意义的效应大小范围,然后将这些图中定义的区域与MBD的决定联系起来。然后,我们从数学上展示MBD如何适合多个决策过程中的类别。我们已经实现了MBD的理论上声音版本,作为支持广义漏斗图的可视化工具。 MBD的使用可以鼓励研究人员计划测试方向,测试水平和错误定义,可视化工具可以帮助利益相关者参与分析的设计和试验结果的解释。

The magnitude-based decisions (MBD) procedure was developed within sports science as an alternative to null hypothesis significance tests. It aimed to emphasise effect sizes and discourage dichotomous decision-making. The use of MBD was banned by some sports science journals following claims it lacks a theoretical foundation and leads to high Type I error rates. To address these claims, we first generalise contour-enhanced funnel plots to allow for ranges of meaningful effect sizes, then relate regions defined in these plots to the decisions made by MBD. We then mathematically show how MBD fits within a class of multiple decision procedures. We have implemented this theoretically sound version of MBD as a visualisation tool that supports generalised funnel plots. The use of MBD could encourage researchers to plan test directionalities, test levels and error definitions, and the visualisation tool may help stakeholders engage with the design of analyses and the interpretation of trial findings.

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