论文标题
恶作剧:基于排名的运动预测
PRANK: motion Prediction based on RANKing
论文作者
论文摘要
预测行人或人类驱动车辆等代理商的运动是自主驾驶领域中最关键的问题之一。驾驶的整体安全性和乘客的舒适性直接取决于其成功的解决方案。运动预测问题也仍然是自动驾驶工程中最具挑战性的问题之一,这主要是由于情况下可能的代理商未来行为的差异很大。负责上述方差的两个现象是由代理人意图的不确定性(例如,向右转或向前移动)以及实现给定意图的不确定性引起的多模式。为了在实时自主驾驶管道中有用,运动预测系统必须提供有效的方法来描述和量化这种不确定性,例如计算后验模式及其概率或估计与给定轨迹相对应的点。它也不应该对物理上不可能的轨迹提出很大的密度,因为它们可能会混淆处理预测的系统。在本文中,我们介绍了满足这些要求的恶作剧方法。恶作剧以卷积神经网络提取场景的特征,将栅格化的鸟眼图像作为输入,并提取场景的特征。然后,它在给定场景中产生了代理轨迹的条件分布。恶作剧的关键贡献是一种使用潜在轨迹空间中最近邻居方法来表示该分布的方法,这可以实时进行有效的推断。我们在内部和Argoverse数据集上评估恶作剧,并在其中显示出竞争性的结果。
Predicting the motion of agents such as pedestrians or human-driven vehicles is one of the most critical problems in the autonomous driving domain. The overall safety of driving and the comfort of a passenger directly depend on its successful solution. The motion prediction problem also remains one of the most challenging problems in autonomous driving engineering, mainly due to high variance of the possible agent's future behavior given a situation. The two phenomena responsible for the said variance are the multimodality caused by the uncertainty of the agent's intent (e.g., turn right or move forward) and uncertainty in the realization of a given intent (e.g., which lane to turn into). To be useful within a real-time autonomous driving pipeline, a motion prediction system must provide efficient ways to describe and quantify this uncertainty, such as computing posterior modes and their probabilities or estimating density at the point corresponding to a given trajectory. It also should not put substantial density on physically impossible trajectories, as they can confuse the system processing the predictions. In this paper, we introduce the PRANK method, which satisfies these requirements. PRANK takes rasterized bird-eye images of agent's surroundings as an input and extracts features of the scene with a convolutional neural network. It then produces the conditional distribution of agent's trajectories plausible in the given scene. The key contribution of PRANK is a way to represent that distribution using nearest-neighbor methods in latent trajectory space, which allows for efficient inference in real time. We evaluate PRANK on the in-house and Argoverse datasets, where it shows competitive results.