论文标题

荟萃分析的可靠性对环境空气质量与哮喘发育之间的关联后期的可靠性

Reliability of meta-analysis of an association between ambient air quality and development of asthma later in life

论文作者

Young, S. Stanley, Cheng, Kai-Chieh, Chen, Jin Hua, Chen, Shu-Chuan, Kindzierski, Warren B.

论文摘要

观察性研究的主张通常无法复制。进行了一项研究,以评估在高度引用的荟萃分析中使用的队列研究的可靠性,该研究对环境二氧化氮,NO2和细颗粒物,PM2.5,生命早期的浓度和生命后期的浓度之间的浓度。估算了荟萃分析的19个基本论文的统计检验数量。构建了NO2和PM2.5的P值图,以评估基础论文中使用的P值的效应异质性。基础论文中可能的统计测试数量很大 - 中值13,824,四分位间距1,536-221,184;与统计测试结果相比,范围96-42m。从基础论文中得出的统计测试结果不太可能为荟萃分析提供公正的措施。 p值图表明,基础论文中NO2结果的异质性与两个组分混合物一致。首先,在荟萃分析中,平均混合物是没有意义的。其次,NO2的p值图的形状似乎与分析操纵在几个队列研究中获得小p值的可能性一致。至于PM2.5,所有相应的P值落在45度线上,表明完全随机性而不是真实的关联。我们对荟萃分析的解释是,随机的p值表明没有原因效应关联更合理,并且在没有偏见的情况下,它们的荟萃分析不可能复制。我们得出的结论是,由于多次测试和多个建模MTMM引起的偏差,用于荟萃分析的基本论文中的主张是不可靠的。我们还表明,有证据表明,用于荟萃分析的基础论文中的异质性比正常过程中的简单采样更为复杂。

Claims from observational studies often fail to replicate. A study was undertaken to assess the reliability of cohort studies used in a highly cited meta-analysis of the association between ambient nitrogen dioxide, NO2, and fine particulate matter, PM2.5, concentrations early in life and development of asthma later in life. The numbers of statistical tests possible were estimated for 19 base papers considered for the meta-analysis. A p-value plot for NO2 and PM2.5 was constructed to evaluate effect heterogeneity of p-values used from the base papers. The numbers of statistical tests possible in the base papers were large - median 13,824, interquartile range 1,536-221,184; range 96-42M, in comparison to statistical test results presented. Statistical test results drawn from the base papers are unlikely to provide unbiased measures for meta-analysis. The p-value plot indicated that heterogeneity of the NO2 results across the base papers is consistent with a two-component mixture. First, it makes no sense to average across a mixture in meta-analysis. Second, the shape of the p-value plot for NO2 appears consistent with the possibility of analysis manipulation to obtain small p-values in several of the cohort studies. As for PM2.5, all corresponding p-values fall on a 45-degree line indicating complete randomness rather than a true association. Our interpretation of the meta-analysis is that the random p-values indicating no cause-effect associations are more plausible and that their meta-analysis will not likely replicate in the absence of bias. We conclude that claims made in the base papers used for meta-analysis are unreliable due to bias induced by multiple testing and multiple modelling, MTMM. We also show there is evidence that the heterogeneity across the base papers used for meta-analysis is more complex than simple sampling from a normal process.

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