论文标题
各种动态混合物
Variational Dynamic Mixtures
论文作者
论文摘要
深层概率时间序列预测模型已成为机器学习的组成部分。尽管已经提出了几种强大的生成模型,但我们提供了证据表明它们相关的推理模型通常太有限,并导致生成模型预测模式平均动力学。调节性是有问题的,因为许多现实世界序列是高度多模式的,并且它们的平均动力学是非物理的(例如,预测的出租车轨迹可能会通过街道图上的建筑物运行)。为了更好地捕获多模式,我们开发了变异动态混合物(VDM):一种新的变异家族来推断顺序的潜在变量。每个时间步骤的VDM近似后验是一个混合密度网络,其参数来自通过经常性架构传播多个样本。这导致表达性多模式后近似。在一项实证研究中,我们表明,VDM在来自不同领域的高度多模式数据集上的表现优于相互竞争的方法。
Deep probabilistic time series forecasting models have become an integral part of machine learning. While several powerful generative models have been proposed, we provide evidence that their associated inference models are oftentimes too limited and cause the generative model to predict mode-averaged dynamics. Modeaveraging is problematic since many real-world sequences are highly multi-modal, and their averaged dynamics are unphysical (e.g., predicted taxi trajectories might run through buildings on the street map). To better capture multi-modality, we develop variational dynamic mixtures (VDM): a new variational family to infer sequential latent variables. The VDM approximate posterior at each time step is a mixture density network, whose parameters come from propagating multiple samples through a recurrent architecture. This results in an expressive multi-modal posterior approximation. In an empirical study, we show that VDM outperforms competing approaches on highly multi-modal datasets from different domains.