论文标题
Covid-19期间学校重新开放策略的影响：巴西圣保罗的案例研究
The impact of school reopening strategies during COVID-19: A case study of Sao Paulo, Brazil
论文作者
论文摘要
在Covid-19-19大流行期间，许多国家选择采取严格的公共卫生措施，包括关闭学校。他们现在开始放松一些限制。为了避免压倒性的卫生系统，在选择学校重新开放策略时需要考虑对新Covid-19案件的预测。使用计算机模拟，我们分析了在圣保罗大都会地区重新开放学校的不同策略，包括正式的重新开放计划。我们的结果表明，与所有学生一起重新开放学校对新的Covid-19案件的数量有很大影响，这可能会导致卫生系统崩溃。另一方面，受控学校的重新开放避免了卫生系统的崩溃，根据人们的遵守措施，最高的ICU入住率在48.8％至97.8％之间。疫苗可用后，推迟学校的返回日期，可以在圣保罗大都会地区挽救37,753人的生命。
During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries opted for strict public health measures, including closing schools. They have now started relaxing some of those restrictions. To avoid overwhelming health systems, predictions for the number of new COVID-19 cases need to be considered when choosing a school reopening strategy. Using computer simulation, we analyze different strategies to reopen schools in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area, including the official reopening plan. Our results indicate that reopening schools with all students at once has a big impact on the number of new COVID-19 cases, which could cause a collapse of the health system. On the other hand, a controlled school reopening avoids the collapse of the health system, with a maximum ICU occupancy between 48.8% and 97.8%, depending on how people attending school follow sanitary measures. Postponing the schools' return date for after a vaccine becomes available can save up to 37,753 lives just in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area.
