论文标题
随着趋势过滤的改进预测性深度神经网络
Improved Predictive Deep Temporal Neural Networks with Trend Filtering
论文作者
论文摘要
数十年来,旨在预测多元时间序列的预测,该预测旨在预测以前和当前几个单变量时间序列数据的未来值,其中一个例子是Arima。由于很难衡量噪声与迅速波动的财务时间序列数据中的噪声混合在一起的程度,因此设计一个良好的预测模型并不是一件简单的任务。最近,许多研究人员对经常性的神经网络和基于注意力的神经网络感兴趣,并将其应用于财务预测中。已经有许多尝试利用这些方法来捕获长期时间依赖性,并选择多元时间序列数据中的更多重要特征,以进行准确的预测。在本文中,我们提出了一个基于深神经网络和趋势过滤的新预测框架,该框架将噪声时间序列数据转换为分段线性时尚。我们揭示了深度时间神经网络的预测性能在通过趋势过滤时间处理训练数据时会提高。为了验证我们的框架的效果,使用了三个深层神经网络,即时间序列金融数据的预测模型,并将其与包含趋势过滤作为输入功能的模型进行了比较。对现实世界多元时间序列数据的广泛实验表明,该方法有效,并且比现有基线方法更好。
Forecasting with multivariate time series, which aims to predict future values given previous and current several univariate time series data, has been studied for decades, with one example being ARIMA. Because it is difficult to measure the extent to which noise is mixed with informative signals within rapidly fluctuating financial time series data, designing a good predictive model is not a simple task. Recently, many researchers have become interested in recurrent neural networks and attention-based neural networks, applying them in financial forecasting. There have been many attempts to utilize these methods for the capturing of long-term temporal dependencies and to select more important features in multivariate time series data in order to make accurate predictions. In this paper, we propose a new prediction framework based on deep neural networks and a trend filtering, which converts noisy time series data into a piecewise linear fashion. We reveal that the predictive performance of deep temporal neural networks improves when the training data is temporally processed by a trend filtering. To verify the effect of our framework, three deep temporal neural networks, state of the art models for predictions in time series finance data, are used and compared with models that contain trend filtering as an input feature. Extensive experiments on real-world multivariate time series data show that the proposed method is effective and significantly better than existing baseline methods.