论文标题

基于LSSVM的短期风速预测,由Elitist QPSO优化

Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting based on LSSVM Optimized by Elitist QPSO

论文作者

Yekun, Ephrem Admasu, Fitwi, Alem Haddush, Selvi, S. Karpaga, Kumar, Anubhav

论文摘要

如今,由于其有效的能源使用和低污染,风能被认为是最广泛使用的可再生能源应用之一。为了将风能高度整合到电力市场中,对风速预测的有效模型的需求很高。但是,风速的非平稳和非线性特征使风速预测具有挑战性。事实证明,LSSVM是一种很好的预测算法,主要用于诸如风数据之类的时间序列应用程序。为了提高算法的学习性能和概括能力,LSSVM具有两个高参数,称为正则化和内核参数,需要仔细调整。在本文中,提出了一种修改的QPSO算法,该算法使用Transposon操作员的原理来培养QPSO的个人最佳和全球最佳粒子并提高全球搜索功能。然后,优化算法用于生成LSSVM超参数的最佳值。最后,将提出模型的性能与先前已知的PSO和QPSO优化的LSSVM模型进行了比较。经验结果表明,与竞争方法相比,提出的模型表现出改善的性能。

Nowadays, wind power is considered as one of the most widely used renewable energy applications due to its efficient energy use and low pollution. In order to maintain high integration of wind power into the electricity market, efficient models for wind speed forecasting are in high demand. The non-stationary and nonlinear characteristics of wind speed, however, makes the task of wind speed forecasting challenging. LSSVM has proven to be a good forecasting algorithm mainly for time-series applications such as wind data. To boost the learning performance and generalization capability of the algorithm, LSSVM has two hyperparameters, known as the regularization and kernel parameters, that require careful tuning. In this paper, a modified QPSO algorithm is proposed that uses the principle of transposon operators to breed the personal best and global best particles of QPSO and improve global searching capabilities. The optimization algorithm is then used to generate optimum values for the LSSVM hyperparameters. Finally, the performance of the proposed model is compared with previously known PSO and QPSO optimized LSSVM models. Empirical results show that the proposed model displayed improved performance compared to the competitive methods.

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