论文标题
印度贫困过渡的长期动态
Long term dynamics of poverty transitions in India
论文作者
论文摘要
我们使用与重新分配（RGBM）的几何布朗运动的随机模型对贫穷的动力学进行建模，并在1952 - 2006年期间探索瞬态和持续贫困。我们发现，贫困的年度过渡是普遍的，并且显示出趋势的上升，其上升在很大程度上是由贫困出发的过渡驱动的。尽管有一种有希望的趋势，即使在时间范围的结束时，仍然每年仍会过渡到贫困的个体中，有一个不平凡的比例，这表明贫困线附近的人的经济脆弱性。我们还发现，随着时间的流逝，贫困的持久性仍然显着，尽管贫困持久性的可能性正在缓慢下降。在这种情况下，尤其是关于这种情况下的贫困轨迹的贫困轨迹。贫困线的选择似乎会影响动态，较高的贫困线对应于较低的过渡和较高的持久概率。紧急瞬态和持续性动态的独特性质表明，应对这些现象的方法必须不同，可能会纳入缺失的金融市场和国家行动。
We model the dynamics of poverty using a stochastic model of Geometric Brownian Motion with reallocation (RGBM) and explore both transient and persistent poverty over 1952-2006. We find that annual transitions in and out of poverty are common and show a rising trend, with the rise largely being driven by transitions out of poverty. Despite this promising trend, even toward the end of the time frame, there is a non-trivial proportion of individuals still transitioning annually into poverty, indicative of the economic fragility of those near the poverty line. We also find that there is still a marked persistence of poverty over time, though the probability of poverty persistence is slowly declining. Particularly concerning in this context are the poverty trajectories of those at the very bottom of the income distribution. The choice of poverty line appears to impact the dynamics, with higher poverty lines corresponding to lower transitions and higher persistence probabilities. The distinct nature of emergent transient and persistence dynamics suggests that the approaches to counter these phenomena need to be different, possibly incorporating both missing financial markets and state action.
