论文标题
在分支过程中与Tracing＆Super-Spreaders联系
Contact Tracing & Super-Spreaders in the Branching-Process Model
论文作者
论文摘要
近年来，很明显，超级宣传事件起着重要作用，尤其是在空中感染的传播中。我们研究了一个新的超级宣传事件模型，而不是基于异质触点图，而是基于随机接触率：许多人在单个接触事件中同步感染。我们使用分支过程的方法进行接触跟踪，以分析超宣传事件对接触跟踪影响的影响。在这里，我们忽略了追踪延迟。粗略地说，我们发现，如果症状的比例很小，追踪概率很高，或者潜伏期比孵化期大。在其他情况下，超级宣传者可以降低接触追踪的效果。适用于SARS-COV-2的参数的数值分析表明，在这种感染的情况下，超级公民不会降低接触式追踪的效果。
In recent years, it became clear that super-spreader events play an important role, particularly in the spread of airborne infections. We investigate a novel model for super-spreader events, not based on a heterogeneous contact graph but on a random contact rate: Many individuals become infected synchronously in single contact events. We use the branching-process approach for contact tracing to analyze the impact of super-spreader events on the effect of contact tracing. Here we neglect a tracing delay. Roughly speaking, we find that contact tracing is more efficient in the presence of super-spreaders if the fraction of symptomatics is small, the tracing probability is high, or the latency period is distinctively larger than the incubation period. In other cases, the effect of contact tracing can be decreased by super-spreaders. Numerical analysis with parameters suited for SARS-CoV-2 indicates that super-spreaders do not decrease the effect of contact tracing crucially in case of that infection.
