论文标题
铁路运营商安全水平的统计评估
Statistical Assessment of Safety Levels of Railway Operators
论文作者
论文摘要
最近，欧盟铁路（ERA）（ERA）获得了“开发共同安全方法，以评估国家和工会一级的铁路运营商的安全水平和安全性能”。目前，正在开发几种方法。有趣的是，可能的候选人将如何行事以及特定方法的优势和缺点是什么。在本文中，我们研究了该过程的版本。一方面，我们根据数学统计理论对其进行分析。结果，我们提出了一种统计上有效的方法，基于差异的速率比率测试的差异小于该时代的数量。然后，我们在简单的模拟研究的帮助下支持理论结果，以估计第一和第二种的失败概率。我们构建了决策程序无法区分的替代分布。我们将证明，从数学统计意义上使用最佳的过程，再加上使用较小的特征，此处的事故数量是有利的。
Recently the European Union Agency for Railways (ERA) has received a mandate for 'the development of common safety methods for assessing the safety level and the safety performance of railway operators at national and Union level'. Currently, several methods are under development. It is of interest how a possible candidate would behave and what would be the advantages and disadvantages of a particular method. In this paper, we study a version of the procedure. On the one hand side we analyze it based on the theory of mathematical statistics. As a result, we present a statistically efficient method the rate-ratio test based on a quantity that has smaller variance than the quantity handled by the ERA. Then, we support the theoretical results with the help of a simple simulation study in order to estimate failure probabilities of the first and second kinds. We construct such alternative distributions which the decision procedure cannot distinguish. We will show that the use of procedures that are optimal in the sense of mathematical statistics combined with the use of a characteristics that has small spread, here the number of accidents, is advantageous.
