论文标题
弹性的城市住房市场：冲击与基本面
Resilient Urban Housing Markets: Shocks vs. Fundamentals
论文作者
论文摘要
面对大流行，城市抗议和负担能力危机，是否在转折点茂密的城市环境？评估城市的长期趋势仍然具有挑战性。本章的第一部分描述了2020年住房市场的短期动态。来自价格和价格比率的证据表明对弹性的期望。邮政编码的证据表明，郊区化的短期趋势以及城市抗议活动对房价的一些影响。本章的第二部分分析了1970年至2010年之间城市增长的长期动态。它在这种城市增长中分析了什么是通过短期冲击来解释的，而不是基本面，例如教育，工业专业，工业多元化，城市隔离，城市隔离和住房供应弹性。本章的原始结果以及大量已建立的文献表明，基本面是增长的主要驱动力。本章通过两个案例研究说明了这一发现：2001年9月11日之后的纽约市住房市场；以及1989年洛马·普埃塔（Loma Prieta）地震后的旧金山湾地区。在这些冲击后，这两个地区都反弹了，这表明城市都会大都市的韧性。
In the face of a pandemic, urban protests, and an affordability crisis, is the desirability of dense urban settings at a turning point? Assessing cities' long term trends remains challenging. The first part of this chapter describes the short-run dynamics of the housing market in 2020. Evidence from prices and price-to-rent ratios suggests expectations of resilience. Zip-level evidence suggests a short-run trend towards suburbanization, and some impacts of urban protests on house prices. The second part of the chapter analyzes the long-run dynamics of urban growth between 1970 and 2010. It analyzes what, in such urban growth, is explained by short-run shocks as opposed to fundamentals such as education, industrial specialization, industrial diversification, urban segregation, and housing supply elasticity. This chapter's original results as well as a large established body of literature suggest that fundamentals are the key drivers of growth. The chapter illustrates this finding with two case studies: the New York City housing market after September 11, 2001; and the San Francisco Bay Area in the aftermath of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Both areas rebounded strongly after these shocks, suggesting the resilience of the urban metropolis.
