论文标题
海洋碎屑的过渡路径和垃圾斑块的稳定性
Transition paths of marine debris and the stability of the garbage patches
论文作者
论文摘要
我们使用过渡路径理论（TPT）推断浮动海洋碎片轨迹的“反应性”途径。 TPT分析应用于污染感知的时间均匀的马尔可夫链模型，该模型是由NOAA全球漂流者计划的卫星追踪未划分的浮标产生的轨迹。后者涉及应对物理空间中系统的开放性，这进一步需要适应标准TPT设置。直接将沿海岸线的污染源与各种强度的垃圾斑块联系起来，公开的反应性污染路线代表了海洋清理工作的替代目标。在我们的具体发现中，我们强调：限制太平洋垃圾斑块的高度可能的污染源；将印度洋回旋的弱点描述为塑料废物的陷阱；并揭示了亚热带回旋将垃圾向海岸线出口，而不是在异常强烈的风中向其他陀螺出口的趋势。
We used transition path theory (TPT) to infer "reactive" pathways of floating marine debris trajectories. The TPT analysis was applied on a pollution-aware time-homogeneous Markov chain model constructed from trajectories produced by satellite-tracked undrogued buoys from the NOAA Global Drifter Program. The latter involved coping with the openness of the system in physical space, which further required an adaptation of the standard TPT setting. Directly connecting pollution sources along coastlines with garbage patches of varied strengths, the unveiled reactive pollution routes represent alternative targets for ocean cleanup efforts. Among our specific findings we highlight: constraining a highly probable pollution source for the Great Pacific Garbage Patch; characterizing the weakness of the Indian Ocean gyre as a trap for plastic waste; and unveiling a tendency of the subtropical gyres to export garbage toward the coastlines rather than to other gyres in the event of anomalously intense winds.
