论文标题

数据驱动的大流行反应阶段的建模

Data-driven modeling for different stages of pandemic response

论文作者

Adiga, Aniruddha, Chen, Jiangzhuo, Marathe, Madhav, Mortveit, Henning, Venkatramanan, Srinivasan, Vullikanti, Anil

论文摘要

在19009年大流行期间(和所有暴发)期间,一些关键的问题包括:疾病从哪里开始,如何扩散,谁处于危险之中以及如何控制蔓延。有很多复杂的因素推动了大流行病的传播,因此,多种建模技术在塑造公共政策和决策中起着越来越重要的作用。随着不同的国家和地区经历大流行的阶段,问题和数据的可用性也发生了变化。特别感兴趣的是使模型开发和数据收集对齐,以支持大流行阶段的响应工作。在实时收集和许多不同数据集的传播方面,Covid-19的大流行是前所未有的,从疾病结局到流动性,行为和社会经济因素。从疾病建模和分析的角度来看,数据集至关重要,以实时支持决策者。在这篇概述文章中,我们调查了Covid-19附近的数据格局,重点是该数据集如何通过大流行中的不同阶段来帮助建模和响应。我们还讨论了当前的一些挑战以及我们计划摆脱大流行时会产生的需求。

Some of the key questions of interest during the COVID-19 pandemic (and all outbreaks) include: where did the disease start, how is it spreading, who is at risk, and how to control the spread. There are a large number of complex factors driving the spread of pandemics, and, as a result, multiple modeling techniques play an increasingly important role in shaping public policy and decision making. As different countries and regions go through phases of the pandemic, the questions and data availability also changes. Especially of interest is aligning model development and data collection to support response efforts at each stage of the pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has been unprecedented in terms of real-time collection and dissemination of a number of diverse datasets, ranging from disease outcomes, to mobility, behaviors, and socio-economic factors. The data sets have been critical from the perspective of disease modeling and analytics to support policymakers in real-time. In this overview article, we survey the data landscape around COVID-19, with a focus on how such datasets have aided modeling and response through different stages so far in the pandemic. We also discuss some of the current challenges and the needs that will arise as we plan our way out of the pandemic.

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