论文标题

墨西哥蒙特雷的八年凶杀进化:一种网络方法

Eight years of homicide evolution in Monterrey, Mexico: a network approach

论文作者

Dorantes-Gilardi, Rodrigo, García-Cortés, Diana, Hernández-Ramos, Hiram, Espinal-Enriquez, Jesús

论文摘要

毫无疑问,凶杀案是墨西哥最重要的安全问题之一,数据表明,这种令人沮丧的暴力行为在2007年宣布在毒品战争后不久被宣布。从那时起,类似暴力战争的地区出现并消失了整个墨西哥,造成了不可思议的人类,社会和经济损失。这些区域中最具象征意义的是蒙特雷市,这是纳尔科战争中的中心场景。为了更好地了解暴力在整个城市中发展和传播的基本机制,我们在这里提出了一种基于网络的方法。为此,我们定义了一个凶杀网络,其中节点是通过空间接近和犯罪相似性连接的地理实体。数据来自蒙特雷大都会地区86个月的犯罪数据库,其中包含手动策划的地理位置和日期杀人案,以及开放式城市环境街头地图。在这种方法下,我们首先确定与不同连接组件相对应的独立犯罪部门。这些犯罪集中的每一个都表现出与州和国家一级类似的犯罪进化。然后,当暴力主要与卡特尔有关时,犯罪如何从社区蔓延到相邻的社区,以及在不同时间主要是静态的。最后,我们通过研究安全和暴力的社区到最近的高速公路的距离,并研究与卡特尔相关的年份和接下来的时期,通过研究安全和暴力的距离的距离,并研究高速公路和犯罪距离的演变,从而展示了杀人犯罪与城市景观之间的关系。通过这种方法,我们能够更准确地描述大都市地区杀人犯罪的演变。

Homicide is without doubt one of Mexico's most important security problems, with data showing that this dismal kind of violence sky-rocketed shortly after the war on drugs was declared in 2007. Since then, violent war-like zones have appeared and disappeared throughout Mexico, causing unfathomable human, social and economic losses. One of the most emblematic of these zones is the city of Monterrey, a central scenario in the narco-war. To better understand the underlying mechanisms by which violence has evolved and spread through the city, here we propose a network-based approach. For this purpose, we define a homicide network where nodes are geographical entities that are connected through spatial proximity and crime similarity. Data is taken from a crime database spanning 86 months in the Monterrey metropolitan area, containing manually curated geo-located and dated homicides, as well as from Open Street Map for urban environment. Under this approach, we first identify independent crime sectors corresponding to different connected components. Each of these clusters of crime presents crime evolution similar to the one at state and national levels. We then show how crime spread from neighborhood to adjacent neighborhoods when violence was mainly cartel-related and how it was chiefly static at a different time. Finally, we show a relation between homicidal crime and urban landscape by studying the distance of safe and violent neighborhoods to the closest highway and by studying the evolution of highway and crime distance over the cartel-related years and the following period. With this approach, we are able to describe more accurately the evolution of homicidal crime in a metropolitan area.

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