论文标题
我们为什么即使在失控的流行病暴发中也能观察到高原？ SEIR模型，与巴西的Covid-19的$ n $不同种群相互作用
Why can we observe a plateau even in an out of control epidemic outbreak? A SEIR model with the interaction of $n$ distinct populations for Covid-19 in Brazil
论文作者
论文摘要
该手稿提出了一个$ n $不同种群相互作用结构化SEIR的模型，以描述Covid-19-19大流行疾病的传播。提出的模型具有包括地理上分离的社区以及考虑到老龄化人群群体及其相互作用的灵活性。我们表明，对拟议模型的动力学的不同假设导致了受感染人群的平稳状曲线，反映了来自巴西大国的收集数据。这种观察旨在以下猜想：“拟议模型所反映的Covid-19是从首都到巴西内部的病态扩散，负责该国的高原样病例。”我们介绍了某些情况的数值模拟，并与巴西的报告数据进行了比较，这些数据证实了上述结论。
This manuscript proposes a model of $n$ distinct populations interaction structured SEIR to describe the spread of COVID-19 pandemic diseases. The proposed model has the flexibility to include geographically separated communities as well as taking into account aging population groups and their interactions. We show that distinct assumptions on the dynamics of the proposed model lead to a plateau-like curve of the infected population, reflecting collected data from large countries like Brazil. Such observations aim to the following conjecture: " Covid-19 diseased diffusion from the capitals to the Brazil interior, as reflected by the proposed model, is responsible for plateau-like reported cases in the country". We present numerical simulations of some scenarios and comparison with reported data from Brazil that corroborate with the aforementioned conclusions.
