论文标题
用于分析城市扩展的空间多项式logit模型
A spatial multinomial logit model for analysing urban expansion
论文作者
论文摘要
本文提出了贝叶斯多项式logit模型，以分析城市扩张的空间模式。该规范假定每个类的日志播放遵循空间自回旋过程。使用贝叶斯计算的最新进展，我们的模型允许对空间多项式logit模型进行计算有效的处理。这使我们能够评估区域之间和整个土地利用类别之间的溢出。在一系列蒙特卡洛研究中，我们根据其他竞争规格对模型进行基准测试。本文还使用欧洲区域数据展示了拟议规范的性能。我们的结果表明，空间依赖在农田和草原的土地密封过程中起关键作用。此外，我们发现了多种耕地上的溢出溢出物。
The paper proposes a Bayesian multinomial logit model to analyse spatial patterns of urban expansion. The specification assumes that the log-odds of each class follow a spatial autoregressive process. Using recent advances in Bayesian computing, our model allows for a computationally efficient treatment of the spatial multinomial logit model. This allows us to assess spillovers between regions and across land use classes. In a series of Monte Carlo studies, we benchmark our model against other competing specifications. The paper also showcases the performance of the proposed specification using European regional data. Our results indicate that spatial dependence plays a key role in land sealing process of cropland and grassland. Moreover, we uncover land sealing spillovers across multiple classes of arable land.
