论文标题
DeepCovidnet:使用异质特征及其相互作用的可解释的深度学习模型,用于对COVID-19进行预测性监视
DeepCOVIDNet: An Interpretable Deep Learning Model for Predictive Surveillance of COVID-19 Using Heterogeneous Features and their Interactions
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中,我们提出了一个深度学习模型,以预测未来几天的COVID-19受感染病例的增加范围,并提出了一种新的方法,以计算多元时间序列和多元空间时间序列数据的等等二维表示。使用这种新颖的方法,所提出的模型都可以采用大量的异质特征,例如人口普查数据,县内移动性,县间流动性,社会疏远数据,过去的感染增长等,以及在这些特征之间学习复杂的相互作用。使用从各种来源收集的数据,我们估计了所有美国县的未来7天被感染病例的增加范围。此外,我们使用该模型来识别预测感染生长的最具影响力的特征。我们还分析了特征对,并估计它们之间观察到的二阶相互作用的量。实验表明,提出的模型获得了令人满意的预测性能和相当可解释的特征分析结果。因此,提出的模型可以补充用于大流行病的国家水平监视的标准流行病学模型,例如Covid-19。从深度学习模型中获得的结果和发现可能有可能为决策者和研究人员提供有效的缓解和响应策略的信息。为了快速进行进一步的开发和实验,已将用于实施该模型的代码完全开源。
In this paper, we propose a deep learning model to forecast the range of increase in COVID-19 infected cases in future days and we present a novel method to compute equidimensional representations of multivariate time series and multivariate spatial time series data. Using this novel method, the proposed model can both take in a large number of heterogeneous features, such as census data, intra-county mobility, inter-county mobility, social distancing data, past growth of infection, among others, and learn complex interactions between these features. Using data collected from various sources, we estimate the range of increase in infected cases seven days into the future for all U.S. counties. In addition, we use the model to identify the most influential features for prediction of the growth of infection. We also analyze pairs of features and estimate the amount of observed second-order interaction between them. Experiments show that the proposed model obtains satisfactory predictive performance and fairly interpretable feature analysis results; hence, the proposed model could complement the standard epidemiological models for national-level surveillance of pandemics, such as COVID-19. The results and findings obtained from the deep learning model could potentially inform policymakers and researchers in devising effective mitigation and response strategies. To fast-track further development and experimentation, the code used to implement the proposed model has been made fully open source.