论文标题
没有保证免疫力的流行病动力学
Dynamics of epidemic diseases without guaranteed immunity
论文作者
论文摘要
全球SARS-COV-2大流行提出了一种新型的疾病传播动力学类型。谁说目前尚无证据表明从199号恢复并拥有抗体的人免受第二种感染的影响[WHO]。常规数学模型考虑了一个恢复的人再次易感或发展免疫力的情况。在这里，我们研究了感染剂恢复的情况，并且只有在不断感染一段时间的情况下才会产生免疫力。否则，它们再次变得容易受到影响。我们表明，田间理论界定了传染病的峰值。因此，该理论的阶段表征了疾病动力学：（i）大流行期和（ii）反应方案。该模型很好地描述了SARS-COV-2爆发在中国武汉市的流行传播。我们发现，只有30％的回收药物已经产生了免疫力。我们预计我们的论文会影响决策对平衡经济影响和大流行对社会的影响。只要控制疾病的措施将疾病动态保留在“反应状态”中，就排除了大流行升级（'第二波'）。
The global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic suggests a novel type of disease spread dynamics. WHO states that there is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are immune from a second infection [WHO]. Conventional mathematical models consider cases for which a recovered individual either becomes susceptible again or develops an immunity. Here, we study the case where infected agents recover and only develop immunity if they are continuously infected for some time. Otherwise, they become susceptible again. We show that field theory bounds the peak of the infectious rate. Consequently, the theory's phases characterise the disease dynamics: (i) a pandemic phase and (ii) a response regime. The model excellently describes the epidemic spread of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the city of Wuhan, China. We find that only 30% of the recovered agents have developed an immunity. We anticipate our paper to influence the decision making upon balancing the economic impact and the pandemic impact on society. As long as disease controlling measures keep the disease dynamics in the "response regime", a pandemic escalation ('second wave') is ruled out.
