论文标题
SARS-COV-2中社会距离的统计动态作为差异游戏
Statistical dynamics of social distancing in SARS-CoV-2 as a differential game
论文作者
论文摘要
新型的冠状病毒SARS-COV-2已迅速成为对全球公共卫生的重大威胁，特别是因为 - 与新的病原体并不少见 - 对病毒综合征的有效药物治疗或预防症状。在没有这种特定治疗方式的情况下，公共卫生反应的支柱取决于非药物干预措施（NPI），例如社会疏远。本文通过定量分析疾病传播的统计动力学作为一种差异游戏，并估算远处而不是距离的相对成本，从而确定基于已知人群的边际距离的相对成本，从而促进了对SARS-COV-2的社会距离的理解。这些发现可以帮助基于社会疏远的定量框架，证明其有效性。
The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has rapidly emerged as a significant threat to global public health, in particular because -- as is not uncommon with novel pathogens -- there is no effective pharmaceutical treatment or prophylaxis to the viral syndrome it causes. In the absence of such specific treatment modalities, the mainstay of public health response rests on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing. This paper contributes to the understanding of social distancing against SARS-CoV-2 by quantitatively analysing the statistical dynamics of disease propagation as a differential game, and estimating the relative costs of distancing versus not distancing, identifying marginal utility of distancing based on known population epidemiological data about SARS-CoV-2 and concluding that unless the costs of distancing vastly exceed the cost of illness per unit time, social distancing remains a dominant strategy. These findings can assist in solidly anchoring public health responses based on social distancing within a quantitative framework attesting to their effectiveness.
