论文标题
COVID-19的SIQR模型的确切特性
Exact Properties of SIQR model for COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
在重新定义被感染和隔离的隔室以使其适用于COVID-19的情况下，对SIQR模型进行了重新构建，并提出了该模型的确切特性。结果表明，最大受感染的最大数量在很大程度上取决于隔离率，并且隔离度措施比控制大流行时更有效。证明隔离患者数量的峰值比感染数量最大的时间晚了一段时间。在预期的效用理论的基础上，提出了一个理论框架，以在锁定度量和隔离度量的空间中找到最佳策略，以最大程度地减少感染的最大数量，并在早期阶段控制大流行的爆发。
The SIQR model is reformulated where compartments for infected and quarantined are redefined so as to be appropriate to COVID-19, and exact properties of the model are presented. It is shown that the maximum number of infected at large depends strongly on the quarantine rate and that the quarantine measure is more effective than the lockdown measure in controlling the pandemic. The peak of the number of quarantined patients is shown to appear some time later than the time that the number of infected becomes maximum. On the basis of the expected utility theory, a theoretical framework to find out an optimum strategy in the space of lockdown measure and quarantine measure is proposed for minimizing the maximum number of infected and for controlling the outbreak of pandemic at its early stage.
