论文标题
Madden Julian振荡对印度尼西亚降水极端的影响
Impacts of the Madden Julian Oscillation on Precipitation Extremes in Indonesia
论文作者
论文摘要
Madden Julian振荡（MJO）对雨季（10月至4月）期间印尼极端的影响，已使用每日电台雨量计数据以及在1987年至2017年评估水资源（Aphrodite）的高度分析的亚洲降水量的高度分析的亚洲降水量。结果表明，MJO显着调节了印度尼西亚极端降水事件的频率，其影响的幅度在整个地区变化。具体而言，对流有效（被抑制）MJO增加（减少）印度尼西亚西部和中部地区极端降水事件的可能性增加了70％（40％）。在印度尼西亚的东部，MJO增加（降低）极端降水概率最高可达50％（40％）。我们将极端降水事件的概率差异归因于MJO诱导的水平水分通量收敛的变化。结果表明，MJO提供了印度尼西亚每日极端降水的可预测性。
The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the precipitation extremes in Indonesia during the rainy season (October to April) has been evaluated using the daily station rain gauge data and the gridded Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Toward Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) from 1987 to 2017 for different phases of the MJO. The results show that MJO significantly modulates the frequency of extreme precipitation events in Indonesia, with the magnitude of the impact varying across regions. Specifically, the convectively active (suppressed) MJO increases (decreases) the probability of extreme precipitation events over the western and central parts of Indonesia by up to 70% (40%). In the eastern part of Indonesia, MJO increases (decreases) extreme precipitation probability by up to 50% (40%). We attribute the differences in the probability of extreme precipitation events to the changes in the horizontal moisture flux convergence induced by MJO. The results indicate that the MJO provides the source of predictability of daily extreme precipitation in Indonesia.
