论文标题
监禁对犯罪的影响
The impacts of incarceration on crime
论文作者
论文摘要
本文回顾了有关监禁对犯罪的影响的研究。在数据可用性许可的情况下，复制并重新分析了审查的研究。在我审查的三打研究中，我获得或重建了八个研究和代码。复制和重新分析表明，七个的方法论问题很大，并导致了四个的重新解释。我估计，在当今美国的典型政策利润率上，脱勺对监狱以外的犯罪的净影响为零。该估计是不确定的，但至少有证据表明，脱渣会随着犯罪的增加而减少犯罪。此事的症结在于，更严厉的刑期几乎不会阻止犯罪，而在监禁人们暂时阻止他们在监狱墙外犯罪，但释放后也会增加其犯罪行为。结果，“犯罪强度”计划可以在短期内减少犯罪，但从长远来看会造成抵消危害。一项成本效益分析发现，即使在魔鬼的倡导者阅读这一证据的倡导者中，在这种证据中，在美国确实减少了美国的犯罪，也不太可能增加总体福利。
This paper reviews the research on the impacts of incarceration on crime. Where data availability permits, reviewed studies are replicated and reanalyzed. Among three dozen studies I reviewed, I obtained or reconstructed the data and code for eight. Replication and reanalysis revealed significant methodological concerns in seven and led to major reinterpretations of four. I estimate that, at typical policy margins in the United States today, decarceration has zero net impact on crime outside of prison. That estimate is uncertain, but at least as much evidence suggests that decarceration reduces crime as increases it. The crux of the matter is that tougher sentences hardly deter crime, and that while imprisoning people temporarily stops them from committing crime outside prison walls, it also tends to increase their criminality after release. As a result, "tough-on-crime" initiatives can reduce crime in the short run but cause offsetting harm in the long run. A cost-benefit analysis finds that even under a devil's advocate reading of this evidence, in which incarceration does reduce crime in U.S., it is unlikely to increase aggregate welfare.
