论文标题

集成最大稳定过程和贝叶斯模型,以预测多模型合奏中极端气候事件

Integration of max-stable processes and Bayesian model averaging to predict extreme climatic events in multi-model ensembles

论文作者

Shin, Yonggwan, Lee, Youngsaeng, Choi, Juntae, Park, Jeong-Soo

论文摘要

有时通过使用多模型集合方法(例如嵌入具有广义极值(GEV)分布的贝叶斯模型平均(BMA))来预测极端气候变化的预测。 BMA是一种流行的方法,可以通过对模型结构进行加权平均和表征引起的不确定性来组合单个模拟模型的预测。该方法称为GEV填充的BMA。但是,它是基于对极端事件的点分析的,这意味着它忽略了附近网格单元之间的空间依赖性。通常采用空间稳定过程(MSP),而不是点对点模型,而是通过考虑空间依赖性来提高精度。我们提出了一种将MSP集成到BMA中的方法,该方法称为本文中的MSP-BMA。通过使用耦合模型比较项目阶段5(CMIP5)多模型的极端降雨强度数据(CMIP5)多模型,通过使用极端降雨强度数据来证明所提出的方法优于GEV所提出的BMA的优势。重新分析数据称为阿芙罗狄蒂(亚洲降水高度分辨的观察数据集成对评估,v1101)和17个CMIP5模型在韩国进行了10个网格箱的检查。在此示例中,MSP-BMA可实现与GEV填充的BMA的差异。还讨论了MSP-BMA的偏置通胀率在GEV填充的BMA上。 MSP-BMA的副产品技术优势是,在分析之前和之后,不需要繁琐的“再生”,而GEV被安装的BMA应进行。

Projections of changes in extreme climate are sometimes predicted by using multi-model ensemble methods such as Bayesian model averaging (BMA) embedded with the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. BMA is a popular method for combining the forecasts of individual simulation models by weighted averaging and characterizing the uncertainty induced by simulating the model structure. This method is referred to as the GEV-embedded BMA. It is, however, based on a point-wise analysis of extreme events, which means it overlooks the spatial dependency between nearby grid cells. Instead of a point-wise model, a spatial extreme model such as the max-stable process (MSP) is often employed to improve precision by considering spatial dependency. We propose an approach that integrates the MSP into BMA, which is referred to as the MSP-BMA herein. The superiority of the proposed method over the GEV-embedded BMA is demonstrated by using extreme rainfall intensity data on the Korean peninsula from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-models. The reanalysis data called APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation, v1101) and 17 CMIP5 models are examined for 10 grid boxes in Korea. In this example, the MSP-BMA achieves a variance reduction over the GEV-embedded BMA. The bias inflation by MSP-BMA over the GEV-embedded BMA is also discussed. A by-product technical advantage of the MSP-BMA is that tedious `regridding' is not required before and after the analysis while it should be done for the GEV-embedded BMA.

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