论文标题
安排固定长度隔离,以最大程度地减少流行病的死亡总数
Scheduling fixed length quarantines to minimize the total number of fatalities during an epidemic
论文作者
论文摘要
我们考虑一个易感性,感染,删除(SIR)系统,其中可以暂时降低传输速率在固定的时间内。我们表明,为了最大程度地减少死亡总数,应在单个连续时间间隔下降低传输速率,我们通过整体条件来表征此间隔。最后,我们以一些数值模拟结论,显示了实际降低。
We consider a susceptible, infected, removed (SIR) system where the transmission rate may be temporarily reduced for a fixed amount of time. We show that in order to minimize the total number of fatalities, the transmission rate should be reduced on a single contiguous time interval, and we characterize this interval via an integral condition. We conclude with a few numerical simulations showing the actual reduction obtained.