论文标题
医院质量风险标准化通过近似平衡重量
Hospital Quality Risk Standardization via Approximate Balancing Weights
论文作者
论文摘要
比较整个医院的成果,通常是确定表现不佳的医院,这是卫生服务研究中的关键任务。但是,由于医院病例的混合不同,因此平均结果的天真比较(例如手术并发症发生率)可能会引起误导 - 医院的总体并发症率可能会降低,因为治疗更有效,或者仅仅是因为医院服务于整个人口更健康。在本文中,我们开发了一种``直接标准化''的方法,在该方法中,我们将每个医院患者人群重新权重代表总体人口,然后比较整个医院的加权平均值。通过调查抽样和因果推断的适应方法,我们发现了直接控制医院患者组合与目标人群之间不平衡的权重,即使在许多患者属性中也是如此。至关重要的是,这些平衡权重也可以调节以保留样本量以获得更精确的估计。我们还得出了统计精度的原则性度量,并使用结果建模和贝叶斯收缩来提高精度并解释医院大小的变化。我们使用宾夕法尼亚州,佛罗里达州和纽约的索赔数据证明了这些方法,并估计了通用手术患者的标准医院并发症发生率。最后,我们讨论了如何检测表现低下的医院。
Comparing outcomes across hospitals, often to identify underperforming hospitals, is a critical task in health services research. However, naive comparisons of average outcomes, such as surgery complication rates, can be misleading because hospital case mixes differ -- a hospital's overall complication rate may be lower due to more effective treatments or simply because the hospital serves a healthier population overall. In this paper, we develop a method of ``direct standardization'' where we re-weight each hospital patient population to be representative of the overall population and then compare the weighted averages across hospitals. Adapting methods from survey sampling and causal inference, we find weights that directly control for imbalance between the hospital patient mix and the target population, even across many patient attributes. Critically, these balancing weights can also be tuned to preserve sample size for more precise estimates. We also derive principled measures of statistical precision, and use outcome modeling and Bayesian shrinkage to increase precision and account for variation in hospital size. We demonstrate these methods using claims data from Pennsylvania, Florida, and New York, estimating standardized hospital complication rates for general surgery patients. We conclude with a discussion of how to detect low performing hospitals.