论文标题

具有同质性,疫苗接种选择和伪科学态度的流行动力学

Epidemic dynamics with homophily, vaccination choices, and pseudoscience attitudes

论文作者

Bizzarri, Matteo, Panebianco, Fabrizio, Pin, Paolo

论文摘要

我们将对科学和伪科学的态度解释为通过代理人所做的沟通努力在社会中扩散的文化特征。我们提出了一个可拖动的模型,该模型使我们能够研究流行病的扩散,疫苗接种选择和文化特征动力学之间的相互作用。我们将其应用于促vaxxer和抗vaxxers对病例总数(累积感染)之间同质性的影响。我们表明,在疾病爆发期间,同质性具有降低恢复速度的直接作用。因此,它可能会增加病例的数量并使疾病流行。人口中两个文化特征的份额的动力学对于确定对累积感染的总影响的迹象至关重要:如果代理人不太灵活地改变其文化偏变,则更加同质是有益的,否则是有害的。

We interpret attitudes towards science and pseudosciences as cultural traits that diffuse in society through communication efforts exerted by agents. We present a tractable model that allows us to study the interaction among the diffusion of an epidemic, vaccination choices, and the dynamics of cultural traits. We apply it to study the impact of homophily between pro-vaxxers and anti-vaxxers on the total number of cases (the cumulative infection). We show that, during the outbreak of a disease, homophily has the direct effect of decreasing the speed of recovery. Hence, it may increase the number of cases and make the disease endemic. The dynamics of the shares of the two cultural traits in the population is crucial in determining the sign of the total effect on the cumulative infection: more homophily is beneficial if agents are not too flexible in changing their cultural trait, is detrimental otherwise.

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