论文标题
在新EpCentres中的拐点和爆发大小的爆发预测和爆发大小
Predication of Inflection Point and Outbreak Size of COVID-19 in New Epicentres
论文作者
论文摘要
2019年冠状病毒疾病（Covid-19）引起了截至2020年6月中旬的800万感染。最近，巴西已成为Covid-19的新震中，而印度和非洲地区则是潜在的中心。这项研究旨在通过从其他国家的更多“成熟”曲线借用信息，来预测流行病早期这些新的/潜在的震中的拐点和爆发规模。我们将累积病例建模为众所周知的Sigmoid生长曲线，以描述混合效应模型下的流行趋势，并在功率转化后使用四参数Logistic模型。预计非洲地区的爆发总规模为390万例（2.2至600万例），拐点将在2020年9月13日左右发生。预计巴西和印度的最终暴发大小相似，约为250万例（1.1至4300万例），分别于6月23日和7月26日到达拐点。我们在巴西，印度和非洲结束了COVI19的流行病尚未通过拐点。这些地区可能会在爆发规模上接管美国
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) had caused more that 8 million infections as of middle June 2020. Recently, Brazil has become a new epicentre of COVID-19, while India and African region are potential epicentres. This study aims to predict the inflection point and outbreak size of these new/potential epicentres at the early phase of the epidemics by borrowing information from more `mature' curves from other countries. We modeled the cumulative cases to the well-known sigmoid growth curves to describe the epidemic trends under the mixed-effect models and using the four-parameter logistic model after power transformations. African region is predicted to have the largest total outbreak size of 3.9 million cases (2.2 to 6 million), and the inflection will come around September 13, 2020. Brazil and India are predicted to have a similar final outbreak size of around 2.5 million cases (1.1 to 4.3 million), with the inflection points arriving June 23 and July 26, respectively. We conclude in Brazil, India, and African the epidemics of COVI19 have not yet passed the inflection points; these regions potentially can take over USA in terms of outbreak size
