论文标题
锁定之前，评估武汉的Covid-19爆发的发生率和影响估计值
Evaluating Incidence and Impact Estimates of the COVID-19 Outbreak from Wuhan before Lockdown
论文作者
论文摘要
背景：中国武汉是Covid-19的震中。当前研究的目的是在采取干预措施之前了解感染传播动态。方法：通过PubMed和Internet搜索数据和关键事件。使用从各种数据源中提取的数据计算流行病学数据。结果：我们在2020年1月1日之前建立了一个时间表，中国当局得到了令人信服的人类到人类传播的证据。但是，直到2020年1月20日，这些信息才与公众共享。我们的研究估计，如果在2020年1月2日采取了干预措施，而239875案件将在2020年1月23日进行封锁。结论：中国对2020年COVID-19的爆发的关键信息，则将延迟到本世纪以前的公共卫生危机。
Background: Wuhan, China was the epicenter of COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of current study is to understand the infection transmission dynamics before intervention measures were taken. Methods: Data and key events were searched through pubmed and internet. Epidemiological data were calculated using data extracted from a variety of data sources. Results: We established a timeline showing by January 1, 2020, Chinese authorities had been presented convincing evidence of human-to-human transmission; however, it was not until January 20, 2020 that this information was shared with the public. Our study estimated that there would have been 10989 total infected cases if interventions were taken on January 2, 2020, versus 239875 cases when lockdown was put in place on January 23, 2020. Conclusions: China's withholding of key information about the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak and its delayed response ultimately led to the largest public health crisis of this century and could have been avoided with earlier countermeasures.
