论文标题

研究社会技术环境系统的弹性指南

A modeler's guide to studying the resilience of social-technical-environmental systems

论文作者

Tamberg, Lea A., Heitzig, Jobst, Donges, Jonathan F.

论文摘要

“弹性”一词越来越多地用于社会技术环境系统科学,尤其是在地球系统科学中。但是,弹性概念的多样性以及提议的定义的一定(有时意图)开放性会导致误解,并可能阻碍其对复杂系统建模的应用。我们提出了一个指南,旨在缓解沟通并支持韧性的系统发展研究问题和模型。它可以独立于建模框架或基本选择理论应用。该准则的核心是一个清单,其中包括要回答的四个问题:(i)什么是弹性? (ii)关于什么的韧性? (iii)反对什么? (iv)弹性如何?我们将这些弹性问题的答案称为“系统”,“可持续人”,“不利影响”和“响应选项”。 “可持续人”一词是一种新的神学主义,描述了系统(状态,结构,功能,途径,...)的特征,应维护(或足够快地恢复)以调用系统弹性。 在潜在的气候小费元素的应用示例中,证明了在地球系统弹性领域中使用该建议的指南:亚马逊雨林。该示例说明了清单问题的可能答案的多样性以及它们在构建建模过程中的好处。该指南支持建模者准确地传达特定环境中“弹性”实际含义。自由和精确度的结合可以通过在要求明确的定义与强调弹性概念的一般性和灵活性的那些人之间建立桥梁来帮助推进弹性话语。

The term 'resilience' is increasingly being used in social-technical-environmental systems sciences and particularly also in the Earth system sciences. However, the diversity of resilience concepts and a certain (sometimes intended) openness of proposed definitions can lead to misunderstandings and may impede their application to complex systems modelling. We propose a guideline that aims to ease communication as well as to support systematic development of research questions and models in the context of resilience. It can be applied independently of the modelling framework or underlying theory of choice. At the heart of this guideline is a checklist consisting of four questions to be answered: (i) Resilience of what? (ii) Resilience regarding what? (iii) Resilience against what? (iv) Resilience how? We refer to the answers to these resilience questions as the "system", the "sustainant", the "adverse influence", and the "response options". The term 'sustainant' is a neologism describing the feature of the system (state, structure, function, pathway, ...) that should be maintained (or restored quickly enough) in order to call the system resilient. The use of this proposed guideline in the field of Earth system resilience is demonstrated for the application example of a potential climate tipping element: the Amazon rainforest. The example illustrates the diversity of possible answers to the checklist's questions as well as their benefits in structuring the modelling process. The guideline supports the modeller in communicating precisely what is actually meant by 'resilience' in a specific context. This combination of freedom and precision could help to advance the resilience discourse by building a bridge between those demanding unambiguous definitions and those stressing the benefits of generality and flexibility of the resilience concept.

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