论文标题
使用半线性方法来预测地面的影响走廊
Use of the Semilinear Method to predict the Impact Corridor on Ground
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了半线性算法的适应性，以预测撞击走廊是在影响地球的小行星上的。所提出的算法提供了一个有效的工具，能够可靠地预测地面上方固定高度的影响区域，而5阶的计算比蒙特卡洛方法更少。在处理迫在眉睫的影响器时，效率至关重要，这些影响因素的特征是高影响力概率和影响时间非常接近发现的时代。 2008 TC3的案例是一个了不起的例子，但最近的案例迫在眉睫的局面，2018年洛杉矶和2019年的MO，已成功使用了该方法。此外，其良好的性能使该工具还适合分析对物体的影响区域的影响更远的影响时间，甚至是多年的顺序，这是通过对Apophis的第一批观测结果进行的，这使得在发现后25年有影响。
We propose an adaptation of the semilinear algorithm for the prediction of the impact corridor on ground of an Earth-impacting asteroid. The proposed algorithm provides an efficient tool, able to reliably predict the impact regions at fixed altitudes above ground with 5 orders of magnitudes less computations than Monte Carlo approaches. Efficiency is crucial when dealing with imminent impactors, which are characterized by high impact probabilities and impact times very close to the times of discovery. The case of 2008 TC3 is a remarkable example, but there are also recent cases of imminent impactors, 2018 LA and 2019 MO, for which the method has been successfully used. Moreover, its good performances make the tool suitable also for the analysis of the impact regions on ground of objects with a more distant impact time, even of the order of many years, as confirmed by the test performed with the first batch of observations of Apophis, giving the possibility of an impact 25 years after its discovery.
