论文标题
2030年数字天气预测的愿景
A Vision for Numerical Weather Prediction in 2030
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我概述了我认为数值天气预测（NWP）在2030年之前的几年中应该发展的个人愿景，因此在2030年应该是什么样的。通过NWP，NWP的意思是，我的意思是从小时到季节的初始值预测。在这里，我想专注于NWP如何更好地帮助挽救世界最脆弱的地方中日益极端天气的生命。尽管我们可以正确地为NWP遗产的许多地方感到自豪，但其进化受到了国家或机构政治的影响以及基于科学原则的基础。有时，这些相互冲突。在讨论如何最好的气象科学在2030年为社会服务时，能够分开这些问题很重要。否则，任何破坏性的变化 - 无论科学案例多么引人注目 - 都变得难以置信。
In this essay, I outline a personal vision of how I think Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) should evolve in the years leading up to 2030 and hence what it should look like in 2030. By NWP I mean initial-value predictions from timescales of hours to seasons ahead. Here I want to focus on how NWP can better help save lives from increasingly extreme weather in those parts of the world where society is most vulnerable. Whilst we can rightly be proud of many parts of our NWP heritage, its evolution has been influenced by national or institutional politics as well as by underpinning scientific principles. Sometimes these conflict with each other. It is important to be able to separate these issues when discussing how best meteorological science can serve society in 2030; otherwise any disruptive change - no matter how compelling the scientific case for it - becomes impossibly difficult.
