论文标题
过滤气泡，回声室和加固：选举数据中的民粹主义
Filter Bubbles, Echo Chambers, and Reinforcement: Tracing Populism in Election Data
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了一个新型模型，用于回声室，过滤气泡和增强对选举结果的影响。我们的模型将著名的选民模式扩展到狂热者，以包括加强。我们分析了模型的行为，确定不变度的措施，并表明5月1日加固与选民模型相比转移投票的分布，以及2）导致相变。我们在美国总统选举，英国脱欧公投和法国，荷兰和德国的选举数据中，测试具有强化模型是否比缺席的模型比其缺席了。我们发现，在许多情况下，民粹政党和候选人可以通过高水平的强化来清楚地识别。此外，我们发现模型回到数据中预测的相变。我们终于讨论了现代社会中强化行为的发现的含义和相关性。
We present a novel model for the effect of echo chambers, filter bubbles, and reinforcement on election results. Our model extends the well known voter model with zealots to include reinforcement. We analyze the behaviour of the model, determine the invariant measure, and show that reinforcement may 1) shift the distribution of votes compared to the voter model, and 2) lead to phase transitions. We test whether the model with reinforcement fit better than under its absence in election data from US presidential elections, the Brexit referendum, and parliamentary elections in France, The Netherlands, and Germany. We find in many cases that populist parties and candidates can be clearly identified by a high level of reinforcement. Furthermore, we find the phase transition predicted by the model back in data. We finally discuss the implications and relevance of our findings and possible origins of the reinforcement behaviour in modern societies.
