论文标题
选择增长曲线以建模COVID-19
Choosing a growth curve to model the Covid-19 outbreak
论文作者
论文摘要
理查兹家族模型包括一组知名的模型，该模型具有有用的参数来描述疾病暴发的几个方面。这些模型中的一些已用于研究当前的Covid-19大流行。但是，对于竞争模型之间的歧视似乎存在困惑。在本文中，使用欧盟，美国和英国的数据，使用了Akaikes信息方法的详细应用来辨别模型。我们认为，应检查从竞争模型中得出的流行病学特征以补充选择策略，并且模型的隐式特性与可用数据形成鲜明对比。还提供了所选参数所隐含的流行病学特征的详细分析表达。
The Richards family models comprise a well-known set of models with useful parameters to describe several aspects of disease outbreaks. Some of these models have been used to study the current Covid-19 pandemic. However, there seems to be confusion regarding the discrimination among competing models. In this paper a detailed application of Akaikes information approach is used to discern among models using data from The European Union, The United States and The United Kingdom. We argue that the epidemiological characteristics derived from competing models should be examined to complement the selection strategy, and the implicit properties of the models contrasted with the available data. Detailed analytical expressions of the epidemiological characteristics implied by the selected parametrizations are also offered.
