论文标题
量化2018 FIFA世界杯资格的不公平性
Quantifying the unfairness of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualification
论文作者
论文摘要
本文通过蒙特卡洛模拟调查了2018年FIFA世界杯预选赛的公平性。资格概率是针对102个国家的，除非洲和欧洲国家以外的所有团队。提出了一种方法来量化不公平程度。尽管四个FIFA联合会中的资格是公平的，但在大陆之间发现了严重的差异：例如，南美球队可以通过在亚洲比赛来增加其机会。在洲际赛季中选择固定的对决，而不是当前的随机平局可以减少竞争的不公平性。显示，澳大利亚从大洋洲向亚洲地区的转移将其参加2018 FIFA世界杯的可能性增加了约65％。我们的结果为管理人员提供了有关如何重新分配合格泊位的重要见解。
This paper investigates the fairness of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying competition via Monte Carlo simulations. The qualifying probabilities are calculated for 102 nations, all teams except for African and European countries. A method is proposed to quantify the degree of unfairness. Although the qualifications within four FIFA confederations are constructed fairly, serious differences are found between the continents: for instance, a South American team could have tripled its chances by playing in Asia. Choosing a fixed matchup in the inter-continental play-offs instead of the current random draw can reduce the unfairness of the competition. The move of Australia from the Oceanian to the Asian zone is shown to increase its probability of participating in the 2018 FIFA World Cup by about 65%. Our results provide important insights for the administrators on how to reallocate the qualifying berths.
